According to a new report by Jost Van Dreunen, an analyst from Aldora, there is a possibility that Nintendo Switch 2 might not match the success of the original Switch. This could be a logical point, considering that the first Switch is one of the best-selling consoles in history. This creates a very high bar, making it more difficult for the new model to achieve the same level of success.
Challenges for Nintendo Switch 2
There are several factors that suggest the Nintendo Switch 2 may face a more difficult path compared to its predecessor. One of the main concerns is the price. Leaks and reports suggest that the console could cost over $400 and might even reach close to $500. This could create a major obstacle to the console’s fast adoption, as price is a key factor in the commercial success of any product.
Additionally, since the Switch 2 is a direct successor to a console already very well known in the market, it might be difficult to promote at first. While improved graphics or more power might attract hardcore gamers, they may not be as important to casual users, who will be more focused on the price. Nintendo has experienced difficulty with this in the past, as seen with the transition from the Wii to the Wii U, which, despite the success of its predecessor, ended up being a commercial failure.
A Soft Generation Leap?
Van Dreunen also points out that the technical improvements in Nintendo Switch 2 are likely to be “relatively modest.” This could make it hard to justify a big price increase, like the one speculated by the rumors. However, this point is open to debate. Even if the improvements are modest, the generational shift could be significant for the new console, especially in terms of support from third-party developers, who might be more inclined to support the new system.
Compatibility Concerns
Another critical issue raised by analysts is the backward compatibility of Nintendo Switch 2. While backward compatibility is generally seen as a positive feature, it could actually slow down the new console’s growth. This is because many of the games available for Switch 2 might also be available on the original Switch, which could lead some people to delay their purchase. Nintendo will need to release “system sellers”—games that are so compelling that they encourage users to buy the new console. Historically, Nintendo has been good at creating these must-have games, so it will be interesting to see what strategies they adopt to promote the new Switch, even at the risk of reducing sales for the original Switch.
The situation is unique because of the hybrid nature of the Nintendo Switch 2. The main competitor will be the original Switch, and Nintendo itself will have to decide how much to sacrifice the older system in order to benefit the new one. The outcome of this strategy is still uncertain.
